In light of the clearly deteriorating international political environment, it’d probably be helpful to show what a nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran could look like, given the extent public knowledge of both sides’ active and potential nuclear arsenals.

As of November 16th, 2024, per International Atomic Energy Agency statistics and estimates derived from said statistics, the Iranian government has enough enriched Uranium for a rough maximum of approximately 4 200-kiloton warheads (although it’s unclear if they’ve actually assembled any). [https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/iran]

This high-fidelity simulation (using Nuclear War Simulator) depicts a mixed counterforce/countervalue strike by the Israeli Defense Forces targeting known surface and sub-surface Iranian airbases and ballistic missile facilities, as well as an Iranian retaliatory strike by-way-of undisclosed road-mobile IRBMs against the IDF’s main nuclear IRBM base at Sdot Micha, its F-35 airbase at Nevatim, as well as the cities of Tel-Aviv and Haifa.

Rather than wish-casting and falling prey to the allure of ‘Ra-ra’ nationalism and jingoism, it’s high-time that the world remembers why deterrence exists.